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ATG - CASE STUDIES

Market share modelling and scenario planning

Destination

We wanted to address the question: How can marketing contribute to winning back market share in China for Product X?

Design & Delivery

Our client had experienced market share erosion during the preceding two years. China is a complicated market and consistent data was only available for a selection of the markets that the brand operates in.

We reviewed all available data and suggested a sample of markets for further investigation. We then identified and quantified key drivers of this sample of markets through econometric analysis. We also developed a scenario planning tool which compared the impact of different marketing mixes on sales and profits.

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Evaluation

There was a clear understanding of the link between product portfolio and sales. It was clarified by price, by market tier, works to drive sales and revenue. Demonstration of how marketing works for the brand and an estimate of media and marketing ROIs by channel.

Consumer acquisition analysis and demand forecasting

Destination

We need to address the following questions:

• Which markets, or market segments, offer the highest potential?
• Is it better to drive new acquisition or repeat purchase?
• Where does luxury good X sit in relation to other luxury gift items?
• Which message is most appropriate for the Chinese market?
• How much will the market be worth in ten years time?

Time series data was not available. Market trends and buyer attitudes had been captured by a consumer acquisition study undertaken every other year.

Design & Delivery:

By looking across consumers, probability models were estimated which determined the key influences behind an individuals decision to acquire. Analysis of the price paid was then overlaid to produce an estimate of market value.

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Evaluation

Demand forecasts were generated based on assumptions relating to future economic and demographic conditions. Scenarios surrounding how different attitudes might change moving forward were also considered. Each of the key questions was addressed in turn and a strategy for future marketing investment developed.

If you'd like ATG to answer your questions, please contact:

Alex Ruffle
Managing Director ATG China
Telephone: +86 21 2405 1002
Email: Alex.Ruffle@atgworldwide.com

Arjun Ghosh
Partner ATG China
Telephone : +8610 8523 3596
Email: Arjun.Ghosh@mindshareworld.com